Facebook advertising increased Trump's vote by 10%

An investigation of the Carlos III University of Madrid (UC3M), the University of Warwick and the Federal Polytechnic School of Zurich has studied the effectiveness of microsegmented political advertising on social networks such as Facebook in the United States. The study concludes that the number of Donald Trump voters would have increased ten percent in the 2016 presidential elections.

Related Republican team Donald Trump I spend 44 million dollars on Facebook, with 175,000 different ads during the 2016 election campaign , compared to the $ 28 million spent by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

To carry out these campaigns, messages are sent to Facebook users based on various parameters, such as their gender, location or political affiliation, and what has been proven is that this microsegmented advertising on the network social was very effective both in persuading undecided voters to support Trump and to convince Republican voters to come to vote on election day.

trump's success, not only the result of social networks

Specifically, the possibility of an unaligned voter deciding to vote for the Trump candidate, according to the results of the study, increased by at least five percentage points.On the contrary, "the results show that Clinton does not he managed to increase the support among his potential natural voters or increase his participation in the elections. Unfortunately, we do not have the necessary data to understand why in the case of Trump it worked and in that of Clinton it did not, "said two of the study authors, Angel and Ruben Cuevas, researchers from the Department of Telematic Engineering at UC3M. This disparity would show the existence of other variables to be considered in addition to the presence in social networks.

communication in the trump era

Miquel Pellicer, Communication director of the Lavinia Group and author of 'Communication in the Trump era' explains to Nobbot that, despite the insistence that Trump He has a compulsive profile, his "war machine" is an orchestra ».

"He has good weapons to play with.For example, artificial intelligence to reach his voters at the hands of Cambridge Analytica, an aggressive social media strategy, marked card games thanks to a modern Rasputin such as Roger Stone , one of the most controversial political advisers, already present in the Republican ranks in the time of Ronald Reagan.And some media that come to him like flies to a honeycomb, "he explains.

Facebook advertising increased Trump's vote by 10%

Communication in the Trump era '(UOC, 2017).

According to the study, in the case of Trump, the impact of the campaign was most notable among voters who used Facebook regularly, those who used this social network as their main source of news and among voters without university education.specifically, political microsegmentation was particularly effective when it was based on ideology, gender or educational level, and much less effective when it was based on ethnicity or age.

"Our results indicate that getting informed about politics on Facebook does not make voters more informed, but it does make them less likely to change their voting choice , which is very much aligned with the concept of political polarization.This effect is especially seen among men, Republican voters and people with lower educational level, "says one of the study authors, Federica Liberini, of the Department of Economics, Technology and Business Management of the Federal Polytechnic School of Zurich.

predictive analysis

"Thanks to predictive analysis, companies like Facebook offer a set of tools to target segmented voters at an extremely detailed level based on their previous online behavior.These online bell channels are potentially very powerful political instruments.Therefore, it is vital that we understand how political campaigns work on social networks, their impact on electoral behavior and, in the last instance, in the electoral results ", says another of the authors of the study, Michela Redoano, professor of the Department of Economics at the University of Warwick.

informed decisions?

Another of the researchers of this multidisciplinary team, Antonio Russo, from the aforementioned department of the Federal Polytechnic School of Zurich, points out that Facebook's impact on the number of voters "suggests that social networks have great potential to stimulate the participation in politics of people who, if not, would have lost interest in it. In a world where trust in democracy is declining, I think it's good news.We still have a lot to learn about whether the information that voters are exposed to on social media really helps them make informed decisions ».

This research work used two data sources, mainly.On the one hand, they obtained directly from Facebook the cost of advertising on the platform based on different demographic parameters and the political position (conservative, liberal or moderate) of target users of an advertising campaign.

On the other hand, they used the results of electoral interviews conducted by American National Election Studies (ANES) to 2414 voters who were interviewed before and after the 2016 US presidential elections.In this case, they were consulted on their political ideology, gender, educational level, age and other data, in addition to the orientation of their vote at both time points.In addition, they were asked about their use of Facebook to know if they were exposed or not to the electoral announcements in said social network.These data were crossed and the results analyzed.

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